Syria, Russian Hackers, and Trump's Tweets

312,000 dead.  11 million displaced persons.  The Syrian Civil War continues.   The death toll is approaching that of the Iraq War (1), and the number of displaced Syrians far exceeds those in Iraq.

The current fighting in and around Aleppo is the latest in this tragedy, which is soon to reach its sixth year.  There is a slight glimmer of hope, though.  The UK Guardian reports that a "new deal has been reached to evacuate thousands of civilians still trapped in rebel-held areas of eastern Aleppo, after the original pact broke down over demands from pro-government forces that two villages besieged by rebels must also be evacuated."

As ISIS, other jihadists, and the so-called moderate rebels backed by Saudi Arabia and the West fight the Assad government backed by Russia and Iran, what does 20/20 hindsight tell us about the conflict?

For one thing, without foreign intervention, the conflict would have ended long ago.  Rather than throwing arms into the conflict, diplomatic solutions might have prevailed.  War never solves the underlying problems.

For another, we need to understand how deep the Saudi (Sunni) - Iranian (Shia) rivalry is and how it is shaping the conflicts in the Middle East.  "As the Syrian regime is Iran’s closest Arab state ally, the Saudis view regime change in Syria as an opportunity to deal a major blow to Iran, its Shia allies in Iraq and Lebanon, and Shia elements in the Kingdom opposed to Wahhabi rule."  (Huffington Post)

Finally, we need to reassess our policy towards Saudi Arabia.  Let's not forget that fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi.  None were from either Iraq or Iran.  I get it.  Saudis have a lot of oil but that is going to become less important in the future.  Their record on human  rights is more or less abysmal and they are one of the few countries still with a death penalty.  The Saudi death penalty is enforced by beheading - "at least" 157 in 2015. When it comes to beheadings, ISIS has nothing over Saudi Arabia.  Do we really want to continue as the primary arms supplier to this country?

One of the few positives about Trump's electoral college victory is that he will perhaps have better relations with Russia.  Well maybe Trump can convince his Russian friends that they should stop supporting Assad and maybe we can stop supporting the "moderate" rebels and maybe Syria can find some peace.

As for Trump's stand against Muslim immigrants: it is totally non-productive. And ridiculous.  About half of Syria's pre-war population has been displaced.  The majority of the (externally displaced) refugees have settled into refugee camps in Turkey and Lebanon with others making their way to Europe.  By contrast, as of April, the United States had "resettled roughly 1,500 Syrian refugees since the start of the conflict in 2011...That amounts to about 0.03% of Syria's 4.1 million refugees."  The US, to its credit, has pledged to take in as many as 10,000 more.  Let's hope we follow through. (CNN)

As Colin Powell once said, "If you break it, you own it."  US Middle East policy, particularly the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, destabilized the Middle East and had a major role in the rise of ISIS.  Fifteen years of American intervention and occupation have resulted in a failed state (Iraq), a world class narco-state (Afghanistan), and an oil-rich caliphate (Islamic State).

We broke it and now we have to face up to owning it.  Slamming the door in the face of Muslim immigrants fleeing a war zone is not the answer.

In view of the Syrian Civil War and the resulting humanitarian crisis, it almost seems pointless to dwell on the US election.  But I'll do so anyway.  The Russian hacking resulted from their distrust of and antagonism towards Hillary Clinton.. In July, Trump publicly called for the Russians to hack Clinton's emails. Now, mere weeks before becoming president, Donald Trump once again is spreading falsehood.  "Dawn had barely broken Thursday when Donald Trump once again broadcast via Twitter a provably false claim: that the Obama administration had not raised an alarm about Russian interference in the presidential election until after Hillary Clinton's defeat."  This tweet along with one criticizing the media of  "working so hard to make my move to the White House, as it pertains to my business, so complex" were the latest in a pattern for Trump. "His communications seem aimed at keeping his supporters on the team, his opponents under fire and the rest of America distracted from larger unanswered questions about the president-elect's plans." (LA Times, Dec 16)

In one month, reality TV star Donald Trump is going to be the leader of what we used to call the "free world."  To fill the role, he must be credible.  He has yet to show that he is.


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(1) The exact number of dead in the Iraq War will never be known.   Estimates of the total number of excess deaths have been as high as 600,000 to 1 million.   The Human Cost of the War in Iraq website developed by the MIT Center for International Studies presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the human costs to the Iraqis.

Image Credits
Evacuation of Aleppo - The Guardian
Syrian refugee map graphic - UNHCR
Edwin Starr "War (What is it Good For?") original 1969 music video is from YouTube