Syria, Russian Hackers, and Trump's Tweets

312,000 dead.  11 million displaced persons.  The Syrian Civil War continues.   The death toll is approaching that of the Iraq War (1), and the number of displaced Syrians far exceeds those in Iraq.

The current fighting in and around Aleppo is the latest in this tragedy, which is soon to reach its sixth year.  There is a slight glimmer of hope, though.  The UK Guardian reports that a "new deal has been reached to evacuate thousands of civilians still trapped in rebel-held areas of eastern Aleppo, after the original pact broke down over demands from pro-government forces that two villages besieged by rebels must also be evacuated."

As ISIS, other jihadists, and the so-called moderate rebels backed by Saudi Arabia and the West fight the Assad government backed by Russia and Iran, what does 20/20 hindsight tell us about the conflict?

For one thing, without foreign intervention, the conflict would have ended long ago.  Rather than throwing arms into the conflict, diplomatic solutions might have prevailed.  War never solves the underlying problems.

For another, we need to understand how deep the Saudi (Sunni) - Iranian (Shia) rivalry is and how it is shaping the conflicts in the Middle East.  "As the Syrian regime is Iran’s closest Arab state ally, the Saudis view regime change in Syria as an opportunity to deal a major blow to Iran, its Shia allies in Iraq and Lebanon, and Shia elements in the Kingdom opposed to Wahhabi rule."  (Huffington Post)

Finally, we need to reassess our policy towards Saudi Arabia.  Let's not forget that fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi.  None were from either Iraq or Iran.  I get it.  Saudis have a lot of oil but that is going to become less important in the future.  Their record on human  rights is more or less abysmal and they are one of the few countries still with a death penalty.  The Saudi death penalty is enforced by beheading - "at least" 157 in 2015. When it comes to beheadings, ISIS has nothing over Saudi Arabia.  Do we really want to continue as the primary arms supplier to this country?

One of the few positives about Trump's electoral college victory is that he will perhaps have better relations with Russia.  Well maybe Trump can convince his Russian friends that they should stop supporting Assad and maybe we can stop supporting the "moderate" rebels and maybe Syria can find some peace.

As for Trump's stand against Muslim immigrants: it is totally non-productive. And ridiculous.  About half of Syria's pre-war population has been displaced.  The majority of the (externally displaced) refugees have settled into refugee camps in Turkey and Lebanon with others making their way to Europe.  By contrast, as of April, the United States had "resettled roughly 1,500 Syrian refugees since the start of the conflict in 2011...That amounts to about 0.03% of Syria's 4.1 million refugees."  The US, to its credit, has pledged to take in as many as 10,000 more.  Let's hope we follow through. (CNN)

As Colin Powell once said, "If you break it, you own it."  US Middle East policy, particularly the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, destabilized the Middle East and had a major role in the rise of ISIS.  Fifteen years of American intervention and occupation have resulted in a failed state (Iraq), a world class narco-state (Afghanistan), and an oil-rich caliphate (Islamic State).

We broke it and now we have to face up to owning it.  Slamming the door in the face of Muslim immigrants fleeing a war zone is not the answer.

In view of the Syrian Civil War and the resulting humanitarian crisis, it almost seems pointless to dwell on the US election.  But I'll do so anyway.  The Russian hacking resulted from their distrust of and antagonism towards Hillary Clinton.. In July, Trump publicly called for the Russians to hack Clinton's emails. Now, mere weeks before becoming president, Donald Trump once again is spreading falsehood.  "Dawn had barely broken Thursday when Donald Trump once again broadcast via Twitter a provably false claim: that the Obama administration had not raised an alarm about Russian interference in the presidential election until after Hillary Clinton's defeat."  This tweet along with one criticizing the media of  "working so hard to make my move to the White House, as it pertains to my business, so complex" were the latest in a pattern for Trump. "His communications seem aimed at keeping his supporters on the team, his opponents under fire and the rest of America distracted from larger unanswered questions about the president-elect's plans." (LA Times, Dec 16)

In one month, reality TV star Donald Trump is going to be the leader of what we used to call the "free world."  To fill the role, he must be credible.  He has yet to show that he is.


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(1) The exact number of dead in the Iraq War will never be known.   Estimates of the total number of excess deaths have been as high as 600,000 to 1 million.   The Human Cost of the War in Iraq website developed by the MIT Center for International Studies presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the human costs to the Iraqis.

Image Credits
Evacuation of Aleppo - The Guardian
Syrian refugee map graphic - UNHCR
Edwin Starr "War (What is it Good For?") original 1969 music video is from YouTube

Donald Trump vs. the First Amendment

It started in earnest during his primary campaign.  Perhaps you did not notice, given all the outrageous utterances emanating from the man.  Over the course of the past year, though, Donald Trump has made known his distaste for the First Amendment.  

On October 13, the Committee to Protect Journalists, which usually concentrates on conflict zones where journalists face oppression and violence, found it necessary to issue this statement: "Donald Trump, through his words and actions as a candidate for president of the United States, has consistently betrayed First Amendment values."

Is the president-elect a threat to First Amendment rights?  Or is this merely Donald Trump being Donald Trump - threatening those who oppose him, hoping they will be cowered by his bluster and lawsuit threats?  Here's a timeline of some of his pronouncements.  You be the judge.

November 2015
"...religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof"
Trump declares he would have "no choice" but to close down some mosques: “Nobody wants to say this and nobody wants to shut down religious institutions or anything, but you know, you understand it,” Trump said on Fox News’s 'Hannity' ... “A lot of people understand it. We’re going to have no choice.” (The Hill, Nov 18, 2015)

February 2016

"freedom of speech"

Threatens opponents and donors not supporting his candidacy:

1) Trump team sends a"cease-and-desist" letter to Ted Cruz, a primary opponent, after Cruz aired political ads showing Donald Trump speaking in support of abortion rights. 

2) Trump tweets threat to one of the Republican Party's mega-donor families after it was revealed as the funder behind a super-PAC set up to destroy Trump's candidacy. "I hear the Rickets [sic] family, who own the Chicago Cubs, are secretly spending $'s against me," the billionaire GOP front-runner tweeted on Monday. "They better be careful, they have a lot to hide!"

"freedom...of the press"

Trump declares that he would revisit the libel laws to make it easier to sue news organizations, like the New York Times and the Washington Post.  The Post argues,  "What Trump would like to do is prevent the media from holding him to account - to abridge the freedom of the press."  

March 2016

"...the right of the people to peaceably assemble"

Saying about protesters at a Kansas City campaign rally: "I hope these guys get thrown into a jail. They'll never do it again. It'll destroy their record. They'll have to explain to Mom and Dad why they have a police record and why they can't get a job. And you know what? I'm going to start pressing charges against all of these people. And then we won't have a problem." (NY Daily News, March 13)

Nov 2016

"freedom of speech"

"The 1st Amendment was meant to protect OFFENSIVE speech.  Don’t ever, ever forget that. Polite speech does not need protection."  (Ken Jorgiston, Modern Survival Blog)

Trump's tweet of November 29: "Nobody should be allowed to burn the American flag - if they do, there must be consequences - perhaps loss of citizenship or year in jail!"  I'm not sure anyone but Trump has talked about flag-burning in many, many years.  Trump seems to have missed the fact that objectionable as flag-burning may be, the Supreme Court, on multiple occasions, has deemed it a form of symbolic speech protected by the First Amendment.

In an excellent analysis of this Trump tweet, Jeff Brooks (The Michigan Daily) warns about the slippery slope we could find ourselves on:  "If a U.S. citizen could be arrested or even stripped of their citizenship for an act that is clearly protected under the First Amendment, an all-out war on free speech could begin. Once flag-burning is outlawed, what is to stop the president from punishing U.S. citizens for engaging in other acts of protest?  Could someone be arrested for simply marching in the streets...or arrested for speaking ill of the president in any way?" Brooks agrees treating the tweet with this seriousness would be an overreaction "if it had been made in a vacuum.  Yet we must remember that this decree is coming from the same man who once urged his own supporters to 'knock the crap out of' protesters at his rallies. His actions and statements have continued to build upon one another over the course of the past year, and it is clear that an anti-First Amendment sentiment has emerged from Trump’s corner."

December 2016

"freedom of the press"

"Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump’s first campaign manager, said ...that New York Times executive editor Dean Baquet 'should be in jail' because the newspaper published parts of the president-elect’s tax returns during the race...Lewandowski, who has been floated for a possible role in the White House or the Republican National Committee, had previously said he hoped Trump would sue the Times 'into oblivion'..." (NYTimes, Dec 2)

Peter Sterne at Politico thinks a bigger threat than libel suits to freedom of the press would be use of the Espionage Act.  He quotes Laura Handman, a partner at Davis Wright Tremaine who specializes in media and First Amendment law:  “What is very true is that an increase in prosecution of leakers and leak investigations has a huge chilling effect on the ability to report important information about what the government is up to.” 

The rights guaranteed by the First Amendment are one of the bedrocks of our American democracy.  Come January 20, Trump will be sworn to uphold the laws of the land.  Until then, whether Trump will (or even can) do anything to weaken the First Amendment will be a matter for debate.  What is not debatable is that presidents have been impeached for less.
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Image Credits
Bill of Rights is from Modern Survival Blog website.  
Kansas City protest is from New York Daily News.

Trumpocalypse Survival Guide

"Trump won the Presidency by gas light. His rise to power has awakened a force of bigotry by condoning and encouraging hatred, but also by normalizing deception. Civil rights are now on trial, though before we can fight to reassert the march toward equality, we must regain control of the truth."

- Lauren Duca, TeenVogue    

We are just one month or so away from the inauguration of Donald Trump.   As The Atlantic famously noted in a pre-election-day editorial, Trump "might be the most ostentatiously unqualified major-party candidate in the 227-year history of the American presidency,"


So, on January 20, 2017, with right-wing extremists more dominant than ever and an unqualified, politically-inexperienced businessman and reality TV star leading them, the Republicans will be in control of all three branches of the federal government.  Voting rights, Social Security, Medicare, the Affordable Care Act, the Iran Nuclear Agreement, immigration policy, environmental regulations, labor and consumer protections, social welfare programs such as Medicaid, food stamps, housing assistance, and aid to families with dependent children -  these and many other benefits for the common good are now at risk.  Add to this the empowerment and energizing of hate groups by the 2016 campaigns, and it is easy to conclude that we are in for a rough ride for the next four years.

So how does a progressive, rational person survive the next four years and maybe soften the blow?

1. Protest the Alt-Right's agenda.  Here's one example of what I hope to be many in the coming months:  Hundreds of students at Texas A&M protested against white nationalist/alt-right leader Richard Spencer's visit to the campus.  The Alt-Right is feeling triumphant right now.  We need to show them that the majority of Americans disagree with them and their extremist agenda.

2.  Support organizations that fight hate groups.  The Southern Poverty Law Center is an excellent starting point.

3. Stay informed of Republican efforts to weaken America's social safety net.  While their planned attacks on Obamacare and environmental regulations have been well publicized, some, like their plan to weaken Social Security, are not as well known.  "Josh Marshall [of Talking Points Memo] warns, 'Republicans apparently aren't going to be satisfied with phasing out Medicare. They're going to try to pass huge cuts to Social Security this year too. Not Bush-style partial phaseout but just big, big cuts. And you're out of luck even if you're a current beneficiary."  (Mother Jones, Dec 9)

4. Listen to some good, preferably uplifting, music.  Hell, along with protest marches, folk and rock got me through the '60's.  I guess the difference between then and now is that back then you felt things were going to change for the better.  Now, the election of Donald Trump has shown how divided the country still is and how much a role fear and hate play in our politics.  Fifty years on and we still have a long way to go.

5. Pressure Democratic Senators and Representatives to block the Republicans at every turn.  Let your Democratic congressmen know your support for progressives in leadership positions.  Becoming "Republicans-lite" will not work.

6. Regain control of the truth.  Hold news organizations accountable for reporting fallacious statements and tweets as news.  Fact-check organizations such as Politifact and FactCheck.org, can help.

7.  Act locally.  Support initiatives at the local and state level on gun control, the environment, the death penalty, immigrant protection, and criminal justice reform.

8. Volunteer at organizations that help the more vulnerable members of society.  Contribute more to your favorite charities.  If Republicans slash the governmental safety net as they have threatened, private actions will need to compensate.

9.  Enjoy and share the satirical sketches and posts following in the wake of Trump's election.

Seth Meiers on Trump's Lying His Ass Off 

Steven Colbert on Trump's choice for Secretary of Defense: "A secretary of defense with the name ‘Mad Dog’ does not automatically make me feel safer,..You’ve got a president with no experience of foreign policy with his finger on the button, and the other person in the room is a guy named ‘Mad Dog.’ That’s not a secretary of defense, that’s the sidekick on a morning zoo crew.”

10.  Keep your mind open for reasonable pronouncements from the Trump Administration.  Perhaps it won't be as bad as we imagine.

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Spice Girls and Jon Stewart images are from the OccupyDemocrats Facebook page.  Land of Hope  and Dreams video is from YouTube.