Tuesday, November 22, 2016

No, Mr. Trump, You Do Not Have a Mandate

Hillary Clinton's lead in the popular vote over Trump now approaches 1.7 million. That's three times Al Gore's popular vote margin over George Bush in 2000 - the last time a presidential candidate with less votes won because of the Electoral College. In 2000, of course, the conservative justices on the Supreme Court added their help in getting Bush to the White House.

Shortly after the 2016 election, Trump's former campaign manager Corey Lewandoski stated “Donald Trump won the election campaign by the largest majority since Ronald Reagan in 1984." This is of course wrong “There have been eight presidential elections since 1984. In popular vote margin, Trump is 8th out of 8. In the Electoral College vote, he's 6th out of 8.” (Mother Jones, Nov 17)

Clinton's loss in the electoral college resulted from her failure to win the swing states. She lost nearly every one, including several that Obama had won twice. There's much rebuilding of Democratic support to be done in those states. Internally, the Democrats will also do much soul-searching, and the debate between the progressive-wing and the centrists will become more heated.

Nevertheless, it remains that had it not been from an outmoded model of representative government from the 1700's, Hillary Clinton would have been our President.

The only feasible proposal for dealing with this electoral college anachronism is the National Popular Vote Bill. Other options - abolishing the electoral college by Constitutional Amendment and the "faithless electors" petitions circulating on the internet - have no realistic chance. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes nationwide (i.e., all 50 states and the District of Columbia). It has been enacted into law in 11 states with 165 electoral votes, and will take effect when enacted by states with 105 more electoral votes. The bill has passed one chamber in 12 additional states with 96 electoral votes.

Most Americans did not vote for Donald Trump. More of those who chose to go to the polls preferred Hillary Clinton. So, no, Mr. Trump, you do not have a mandate.

But, in the end, this does not matter.

Republicans retained majorities in both houses of Congress, thanks in part to the gerrymandering and voter suppression laws they passed in states under Republican control. They will also regain control of the Supreme Court - which has been deadlocked because of Republicans refusal to consider any of President Obama's nominees.

The Republican Congress will do everything in their power to undo the achievements of the Obama Administrations (the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Franks, the Iran nuclear agreement). President-elect Trump will be in a position to roll back executive orders dealing with the environment and immigration and halt the initial progress in criminal justice reform. The Supreme Court will once again have a 5-4 right-wing majority, just like the one that gutted the Voting Rights Act, declared corporations to have person-hood, and consistently misinterpreted the Second Amendment.

The Senate filibuster and, like it or not, Donald Trump, are the only things standing between the Republicans and the reversal of whatever progress has been made in the past 8 years. I have little faith in Trump and only a little more in the Democratic Senators who recently elected Charles Schumer the minority leader with no opposition. What were they thinking? “Chuck Schumer, the senator from Wall Street. Chuck Schumer, who joins Trump and the right wing leadership of Israel and its American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in opposing President Obama’s Iran nuclear deal.” (The Hill, Nov 16) If Democrats hope to win future elections, they will have to do a lot better than put Charles Schumer in a leadership position. 

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